Natural Gas Information Service v0.2 INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY — NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
· Initializing... · Booting... · —
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Price Curves
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Models: | Horizon:
Awaiting history...
Regional Basis Spreads Waiting...
NG Sector & Trade Prices Waiting... Monthly $/Mcf • EIA
Regional NG Spot Prices Waiting...
CME Globex Live Connecting...
HH Natural Gas Options —
Commitments of Traders (COT) Loading...
Model Predictions Loading...
Model Arena —
Pipeline Infrastructure
PIPELINE NETWORK
107 nodes · ~197 pipelines
NODES
• Pricing Hub
• Junction / Interconnect
• LNG Terminal
• Storage Facility
• Market / Production
• Border Crossing
• LNG (under construction)
PIPELINES
Operating
Under construction
Proposed / limited
CAPACITY
> 2 Bcf/d
1 – 2 Bcf/d
< 1 Bcf/d
Infrastructure map — coming soon
Pipeline EBB Flow Analysis Waiting...
Weather Dynamics
Forecast + Live
Awaiting forecast...
Production & InventoryLoading...
Inventory (Lower 48)
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Awaiting EIA inventory...
Rig Count (Gas)
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Awaiting Baker Hughes data...
Gross Withdrawals (US)
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Awaiting EIA production...
Marketed Production
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Awaiting EIA production...
Dry Production
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Awaiting EIA production...
EIA Series Loaded
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Awaiting EIA fundamentals...
U.S. Natural Gas Production Monthly · MMcf · Source: EIA
Gross Withdrawals by State Monthly · Top 8 producing states
Production Losses & Disposition Vented/Flared · Repressuring vs Total
ISO Gas Generation Waiting...
Storage Nowcast Waiting...
News & Bayesian Expectations Waiting...
Predicted vs Actual
Loading...
Signal Ensemble Loading...
Model Optimizer Idle
Feature Importance Aggregate
Model Comparison All 4 Models
Modeled Symbols Predictions
Symbol Last Volume Pred For MAE
EIA Fundamentals Latest by Series
Series Date Value Unit
GARCH Volatility Waiting...
Pipeline Status Loading...
Alerts Waiting...
System ArchitectureBlock Diagram
EXTERNAL DATA SOURCES Yahoo Finance Futures REST CME Globex WebSocket L1 Databento Options + X-commodity EIA API v2 (33 series) Open-Meteo Weather API CFTC COT disaggregated News RSS Google feeds Baker Hughes Rig count (monthly) 89 Pipeline EBBs Capacity + notices 7 ISOs Fuel mix (hourly) Claude API Sentiment + EBB fallback SCRAPING & INGESTION PIPELINE Scrapers YahooFutures CME WS Databento EIA v2 OpenMeteo CFTC NewsRSS EBBRegistry (89) ISO FuelMix ClaudeLLM APScheduler ingest_futures (15m) ingest_cme (5m) ingest_inventory (6h) ingest_weather (1h) ingest_ebb (6h) ingest_news (1h) ingest_iso (1h) + ingest_cftc (24h) · ingest_cross_commodity · ingest_rig_count · ingest_retail_gas · ingest_databento PERSISTENCE LAYER PostgreSQL 26 tables · Railway managed FuturesCandle · WeatherObs · CftcPositioning · NewsArticle · EbbCapacitySnapshot · IsoGenerationSnapshot · EIASeriesObservation · SymbolPrediction · StorageNowcast · VolatilitySnapshot · ... Redis In-memory cache · Railway managed Dashboard payload (gzip, 1h) · ML models (pickle, 24h) SVAR + state-space cache · Instant boot on deploy MACHINE LEARNING & SIGNAL GENERATORS Primary Models HistGBR Multi-horizon ML · wt 3.0 1h · 4h · 24h · 7d quantile News LLM Claude sentiment · wt 2.5 Article scoring + aggregation Weather Kalman filter · wt 1.0 HDD/CDD impact EBB Flow Pipeline deltas · wt 1.0 Utilization signals ISO Gas Grid demand · wt 0.8 Fuel-mix shifts CFTC COT positioning · wt 0.7 Net speculator delta SVAR Structural VAR Cross-commodity impulse Alt Models RAE Regime-Adaptive Ensemble QGB Quantile GradientBoost Meta Ensemble Inverse-MAE weighted blend ETS Exponential Smoothing Specialized GARCH(1,1) Volatility · Student-t State Space Kalman smoother Storage Nowcast EIA weekly injection est. Basis Spreads Regional hub differentials Bayesian Weather Sequential posterior update Direction Classifier GBC bull/bear signal ENSEMBLE FUSION Bayesian Gaussian Conjugate Posterior mean · P(up) · sigma · signal agreement Weighted Scoring 7 signal weights · precision share GARCH Overlay Student-t CDF probabilities OUTPUT & DELIVERY Dashboard Single-page app · 30s auto-refresh REST API JSON endpoints · FastAPI Multi-Horizon Forecasts 1h · 4h · 24h · 7d predictions Live Ticker CME WebSocket · real-time L1 Alerts & Monitoring Anomaly detection · threshold alerts INFRASTRUCTURE · Railway FastAPI + Uvicorn APScheduler (cron) PostgreSQL Redis SQLAlchemy ORM Playwright Anthropic SDK Chart.js + D3 11 data sources · 19+ scrapers · 89 pipeline EBBs · 7 ISOs · 26 tables · 11 ML models · 7 signal channels · 4 forecast horizons · 33 EIA series
Data Persistence—
PostgreSQL Backups —
Redis Cache —
Research ReferencesChicago Full-Note
  1. Baumeister, Christiane, Florian Huber, and Massimiliano Marcellino. “Forecasting Natural Gas Prices in Real Time.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 40, no. 1 (2025): 3–22. doi:10.1002/jae.3013
  2. Busch, Chris. “Review of EIA Natural Gas Models.” Energy Innovation Policy and Technology LLC, 2014.
  3. Berrisch, Jonathan, and Florian Ziel. “Distributional Modeling and Forecasting of Natural Gas Prices.” Journal of Forecasting 41, no. 6 (2021): 1065–1086. doi:10.1002/for.2853
  4. Rotondi, Francesco. “Linking Futures and Options Pricing: A Seasonal Convenience Yield Approach for Natural Gas.” Energy Economics 141 (2025): 108107. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108107
  5. Nick, Sebastian, and Stefan Thoenes. “What Drives Natural Gas Prices? — A Structural VAR Approach.” EWI Working Paper No. 13/02, Institute of Energy Economics, University of Cologne, 2013.
  6. Colín Betancourt, Arturo. “Modeling, Pricing and Hedging Derivatives on Natural Gas.” Master’s thesis, ITAM, 2014.
These papers inform the model architecture. Key contributions: Baumeister (BVAR + MCS dynamic selection), Berrisch & Ziel (state-space decomposition + skewed-t distributions), Nick & Thoenes (structural VAR with oil-gas cointegration), Rotondi (options-implied features + seasonal convenience yield).